Unprecedented escalation
“Israel has killed over 400 Hizbullah fighters and a senior commander in the last eight months. The villages of Southern Lebanon are in ruins. Hizbullah fired over 160 rockets into Israel on one day last week – the most since the 2006 war. A Hizbullah UAV bomb flew 40 km into Israel – the furthest ever without being intercepted. The north of Israel is abandoned with villages and moshavim in ruins. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced on both sides of the border. And it’s not yet a conflict, what will happen if and when a war actually starts?”, a Western diplomat commented rhetorically.
The escalating cycle of attacks between Israel, Iran and Hizbullah should be a major cause of concern. “Gaza, Ukraine, the football, there are dozens of reasons why no one is focusing on what’s happening in the north of Israel, but if war starts, it’s going to make Gaza look small scale” a senior UN official based in the region told Field. “Hizbullah is very well armed, financed, trained and has real battle experience from fighting for years in Syria. Hamas has none of those elements and is still not just holding on but inflicting casualties on the Israeli Defence Forces. Hamas killed 11 Israeli soldiers in two separate attacks in one day [Saturday 15 June] which is devastating in a small society like Israel. In the 2006 war, Israel lost 121 soldiers. Since 7 October, they have lost over 700 soldiers. Another Lebanon war could be devastating for Israel – and yet it’s somehow a possibility.”
Tensions within Israel
Israel will not want to risk more of their soldiers’ lives in Lebanon and the reservists commitment to the Gaza conflict is exacting an economic and social price. An Israeli journalist told us that “Within Israel, reservists are exhausted. They are doing their duty but it’s hard to feel an end is in sight. One reservist committed suicide rather than return into Gaza when called up a second time.”
A Western diplomat pointed to the fault lines in Israel, “there are many clamouring for the total destruction of Hamas – but how can you totally destroy a resistance movement, terrorist organisation whatever you want to call it unless you remove the underlying grievance which drives it? A lot of those most vocal on the need to destroy Hamas and continue operations in Gaza are from communities that don’t do reserve duty, and that’s a real source of tension within Israel.” Open source material reflects the growing resentment that the Ultra-Orthodox are excluded from reserve duty until the age of 21 whilst the rest of the country is fully mobilised. Protests for equality of reserve duty, amongst other issues, have closed major highways.
And now?
So, what could Israel hope to achieve in Lebanon? A Western security source told us that “Israel can set back Hizbullah by 5-10 years in terms of their military capability. To avoid Israeli casualties, the Israelis will strike using their air force and missiles, that also saves on the manpower and need to call up more reservists.”
Open sources report that US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein arrives back in Tel Aviv today for a round of talks with PM Netanyahu and others, reflecting US concern that broader conflict with potentially wide-reaching consequences might be imminent.
A former Israeli Knesset member we spoke to told us that: “It’s completely unprecedented what’s going on. After Gallant left the coalition, Bibi (Netanyahu) dissolved the war cabinet rather than allow in the far right Minister Ben Gvir. So, we have one war in Gaza, maybe another in Lebanon and no war cabinet. There are many reasons for Israelis to protest against Netanyahu before the war in Gaza, now there is also what the hell happens next. It’s cynical to contemplate that Bibi would consider conflict with Hizbullah to save himself – under normal circumstances, but what’s normal about the situation now? The Palestinians will be forgotten, and so will Bibi’s criminal charges. Who’s going to talk about a ceasefire or a day after plan for Gaza if we are at war with Hizbullah?”
