Opinion

“No more sanctions for Iran, a $300 billion US and friends-financed budget to rebuild, latitude to continue uranium enrichment, the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] still in charge and a Khamenei in power. What’s not to like?” a European diplomat told Field with a heavy dose of sarcasm. “And what we are totally unsighted on, is how exactly does the US see Iran now. Are we supposed to treat it like we treat the new Syria? We don’t love it but we are going along with it, or is Iran still the old Islamic Republic that remains a threat to its people, the region and of course Israel?”

Field’s friends in the intelligence community are wringing their hands this week, worrying how the Iran war will impact future information flow and recruitment inside the country. What was once “almost too easy,” as a former Western intelligence officer put it, may look very different going forward.

“From now on, the US war aim is to open the Strait for trade but keep the blockade for pressure,” a Washington DC insider told Field. Other sources felt that identifying US strategic objectives, or even a single goal, was just theorising given the current administration. The Iranian agenda is clearer.

“In killing the Supreme Leader Khamenei on day one, the Americans kind of achieved their headline aim of regime change,” a US former diplomat told Field. “They did a Maduro. Took out the top guy and left everything else in place.” Since that comment, the US and Israel have struck hundreds of targets across Iran pursuing the Iranian ballistic missile network, military and security targets. But the primary stated aim is apparently still regime change.

“There either has to be a strike on Iran or a deal in Geneva,” a Washington-based diplomatic source told Field. “The US has too much firepower sitting in the region to go home without some kind of achievement. They have two aircraft carrier sized ladders that they need to climb down.”

“Iran is burning. Protests have simply not died down. The number of protestors on the streets might be decreasing, but the numbers of bodies turning up at morgues seems to be increasing,” a former Western diplomat covering Iran told Field.

“Trump’s really pulled it off,” a Washingtonian told Field, “This Maduro arrest or whatever you want to call it is a major win for the US. The anti-immigrant right love it. The oil industry loves it. We have blocked the Chinese. Europe hasn’t said a word. And who’s talking about Ukraine?”

“Classic Trump,” a Washington insider told Field. “Send the biggest aircraft carrier [off the coast of Venezuela], fly the largest bombers, use the F-35’s like a marketing video and scare Maduro into capitulation. Voila, oil deal with the country with the world’s largest reserves.”

“It’s a war of influences,” a veteran Mali watcher told Field. “Putin is showing Macron that he’s taking control of the Sahel, and this time he’s not hiding behind Wagner. This time, his Africa Corps is proudly backed by the Russian Ministry of Defence and it’s opening the path for more Russian business”.

In the 21st century, the UAE has become one of the world’s great commercial hubs. It is a highly tax efficient jurisdiction and a lifestyle destination; it offers everything. It is the market of choice for businesses and investors from the US and Europe through India and the Far East.

The Israeli attack on Syrian forces heading to Suweida is inexplicable, a Middle Eastern security analyst told Field. The Syrian government forces were pretty much doing their job, going to stop clashes between armed fighters from two different constituencies.

“The US has been asleep at the wheel in Africa,” a former US ambassador told Field. “We had no coherent strategy under Biden. Under Trump, we’re at least trying to counter China. Now it’s just about securing mineral flows at any cost.”

“This is not the start of world war three, but it’s not good” a Western diplomat told Field. It is now well-publicised that on 13 June 2025 Israel used pre-positioned forces and suicide drones to destroy Iranian strategic air defences and assassinate members of the Iranian high command and nuclear scientists. Waves of attack aircraft bombed the Natanz nuclear facility 180 km from Tehran.”

“This is a serious stockpile of advanced Russian weaponry and it’s within striking distance of Europe,” a member of the Libyan intelligence community told Field. They recalled the military parade on 26 May staged by Khalifa Haftar, the “self-styled Field Marshal” who controls large parts of eastern and southern Libya through a fragile web of alliances. The guest of honour at the parade was Russian Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, who is credited with recognising the geostrategic potential of Libya and with carefully nurturing the relationship with Haftar.”

“The noises coming from the US-Iran talks suggest that Iran just might be getting the better of the Trump team,’ said a well-placed Iranian now living in Europe. “Iran knows only too well how to play these negotiations, and particularly when the US seems to be in such a rush to get something, anything, signed.” The US-Iran talks are currently stuck between rounds three and four and although a new deal could be in both parties’ interests there are, naturally enough, a significant number of variables and interests at play.