“It's a war of influences,” a veteran Mali watcher told Field. “Putin is showing Macron that he’s taking control of the Sahel, and this time he’s not hiding behind Wagner. This time, his Africa Corps is proudly backed by the Russian Ministry of Defence and it’s opening the path for more Russian business”.

In the 21st century, the UAE has become one of the world’s great commercial hubs. It is a highly tax efficient jurisdiction and a lifestyle destination; it offers everything. It is the market of choice for businesses and investors from the US and Europe through India and the Far East.

The Israeli attack on Syrian forces heading to Suweida is inexplicable, a Middle Eastern security analyst told Field. The Syrian government forces were pretty much doing their job, going to stop clashes between armed fighters from two different constituencies.

“The US has been asleep at the wheel in Africa,” a former US ambassador told Field. “We had no coherent strategy under Biden. Under Trump, we’re at least trying to counter China. Now it’s just about securing mineral flows at any cost.”

“This is not the start of world war three, but it’s not good” a Western diplomat told Field. It is now well-publicised that on 13 June 2025 Israel used pre-positioned forces and suicide drones to destroy Iranian strategic air defences and assassinate members of the Iranian high command and nuclear scientists. Waves of attack aircraft bombed the Natanz nuclear facility 180 km from Tehran."

"This is a serious stockpile of advanced Russian weaponry and it’s within striking distance of Europe,” a member of the Libyan intelligence community told Field. They recalled the military parade on 26 May staged by Khalifa Haftar, the “self-styled Field Marshal” who controls large parts of eastern and southern Libya through a fragile web of alliances. The guest of honour at the parade was Russian Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, who is credited with recognising the geostrategic potential of Libya and with carefully nurturing the relationship with Haftar."

“The noises coming from the US-Iran talks suggest that Iran just might be getting the better of the Trump team,’ said a well-placed Iranian now living in Europe. “Iran knows only too well how to play these negotiations, and particularly when the US seems to be in such a rush to get something, anything, signed.” The US-Iran talks are currently stuck between rounds three and four and although a new deal could be in both parties’ interests there are, naturally enough, a significant number of variables and interests at play.

“Hafiz Assad stole $17 billion during his 29 years ruling Syria, and he wasn’t interested in money,” a Syrian banker told Field. “Since Bashar took over in 2000, he ran Syria as a racket. Every transaction, every service was taxed. The war turned Syria into a full black market economy. Bashar’s thugs are estimated to have made hundreds of millions of dollars just from prisoners that they tortured and killed since 2013.”

“We are in a new phase of the Middle East’s regional conflict,” a Western diplomatic source told Field. On Wednesday [27 November 2024], Syrian armed groups based in the northwestern province of Idlib launched a major offensive towards Aleppo, Syria’s second city.

“Israel has a once in a century opportunity. ‘To make itself safer’, ‘to destroy Iran and its so-called Axis of Resistance’, ‘to expand Israel’s current territory and create Eretz Israel [Greater Israel]’, call it what you will, this Israeli government, which is itself extra-ordinary, can re-draw borders, move millions of people and re-shape the region in a way that it has never had before.” A Western diplomat based in the region told Field.