“After the revolution, there were people literally lining up at our door asking, ‘what can I do?’, because they were so horrified by the regime and looked to us to save them. We were lousy with sources, and we have been since,” said the former Western intelligence officer. “Name a room in Tehran, and we had someone we could call to go flip the lights on and off in there for us.”
Iran’s military elite were historically a particular point of strength. “The Iran-Iraq war is often referred to as the cradle of the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] and a lot of these hardliners among the current regime leadership. What people forget is that even in the ‘80s, much of the professional military were still Shah-era,” a longtime Iran watcher told Field. “The US had trained the real soldiers who fought in that war despite their misgivings about the regime. They came out of it national heroes of the new regime but many still believed in the old Iran.”
A former British diplomat reminded us: “We’ve all seen the photographs of Iranian women in miniskirts in the ‘80s. We all know about the traditions of Iranian literature and intellectualism. This was an urbane, sophisticated society, who were forced to pretend they weren’t overnight. Despite the Shah’s sins, there remained a substantial current in every level of society that wanted the old Iran back, or at least a different system to the revolutionaries. This was particularly true in the capital [Tehran].”
“The US was able to have an exceptionally effective station in exile – not even based inside of the country – because that’s how profound their appeal was,” said a former UK desk officer on Iran.
“It’s not that Iranians were easy to deal with – they’re proud and difficult, impossible negotiators,” a former US Iran watcher commented. “But ultimately, they knew we were aligned, they believed in what we were trying to work toward in their country, and they believed us when we made them promises, because we only made promises we could follow through on. Most of our recruitments were made on ideological grounds.”
An Iranian professor, a self-declared secular moderate, told Field that President Trump’s statements levelled at the entirety of Iranian society had shaken their faith in the West. “‘A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.’ I’m still in disbelief. I never thought I’d see the day that the American president threatened genocide.”
“The fact that Iran unblocked the internet this week speaks volumes,” a former State Department official told Field. “They’re less worried about restricting their people to the ‘domestic internet’, because the real news is even better than what they could come up with. Every site on the real internet is running stories about how Trump is out of control and the Iranians are out-dealing Mr Art of the Deal.”
Such statements, alongside the air strikes which have incurred significant damage to civilian facilities including schools, health centres and vital infrastructure may damage intelligence gathering for generations to come.
“The deep antipathy of Iranians toward their ruling regime has always provided us with a foundation that enabled top-quality intelligence, even from a station abroad. The impact of this war on that foundation is deeply concerning,” the former US Iran watcher told us. “What happens to a source whose niece was at that school in Minab? Personal connections aside, what Iranian could see that story and not have second thoughts about helping us?”
“Intelligence is a relationships business. Period,” said the former Western intelligence officer. “Those who have put in the time, who understand and respect the countries they cover, who know their agents’ kids’ names, who have made time to get to know them as people – theirs will be the relationships that endure. If we lose more of these relationships, it’s going to take a generation to rebuild them.”