The US raid to seize President Maduro in Venezuela’s capital on 3 January had been signalled weeks in advance. The pre-positioning of US naval and amphibious forces, the continued targeted of boats alleged to be running drugs and the partial blockade on exports of Venezuelan oil had all ramped up the pressure on Maduro to quit and leave or for the US to act. “He did it,” the Washingtonian told us. “And there’s nothing more dangerous than a man who says what they are going to do and then they do it. Particularly if they are kind of unpredictable.”
“What does this mean for the other targets on Trump’s list?”, a Western diplomat asked rhetorically. “For us [Europeans], what does it mean for Greenland? What does it mean for NATO when Trump says that we don’t pull our weight? What does it mean for Iran or Panama?”
A military source told Field “This was a dream mission, two injuries, no American fatalities. If this had been a military failure with US helicopters shot down, or crashing – and we’ve had that before – if there had been serious casualties, or even worse, US troops left behind or taken prisoner, this would all look very different. The US did very well. And that’s going to give them confidence to go further, or do it again. Watch out, world.”
A Latin America analyst noted that “The situation in Caracas today looks fine. No civilian casualties. Uncertainty, okay, but there’s no blood in the streets. The question is to what extent does this actually change anything? Is this decapitation of the Chavez regime or just a haircut?”
The military source concurred. “You can’t remote control a foreign country. The system has to want to work with you if you aren’t going to take control directly and I mean directly, through troops securing the oilfields, then securing the ports and terminals, then securing the streets up to the ports, securing the food supply, protecting your new politicians, in other words ‘occupation’.”
“There are a lot of different people who are angry about this attack on Venezuelan sovereignty,” a think tanker told Field. “The Europeans want to call it illegal but are afraid of Trump because of tariffs and support for Ukraine, they have a lot to lose and Venezuela is not their issue. But perhaps most dangerous to this [US] Administration is the domestic opposition. The democrats and lefties are already out with their “No blood for oil” signs. And Trump can’t take the MAGA base for granted. This looks a lot like the start of a new and expensive foreign problem, which is not what they voted for.”
“Fourteen years after the fall of Gaddafi in Libya, the oil isn’t flowing to Europe, the migrants are crossing in record numbers and the country is a basket case of competing governments supported by different foreign interests. We created a vacuum because we did not put “boots on the ground” there and the chaos rolls on. There were boots on the ground in Iraq, a lot of boots and has that country really ever recovered?,” the Western diplomat commented.
“It’s a win today,” the Washingtonian concluded, “in this town, that’s enough. Our news cycle gets shorter and shorter. Who knows what tomorrow brings, is anyone in the White House even thinking that far ahead?”
Editors’ note. It is unusual that our interlocutors pose so many questions. This in itself is some reflection of the very strong uncertainty about what may happen next in Venezuela, and the broader implications of this action.