“If the Americans think that killing 30, 50, hundreds of Iranian politicians and military commanders will make any difference they are dreaming,” a former Western intelligence officer covering Iran told Field. “The Iranians have spent decades building their infrastructure of repression. The first thing they did was mobilise the ubiquitous basij militia and the secret police auxiliary units to keep a lid on any protests or celebrations of Khamenei’s killing. This is not a house of cards which one quick American blow will bring down.”
An Israeli analyst told Field, “Israel’s goal is not stability and security for Iran. This talk of arming the Kurds in Iran or Iraq is straight out of Israel’s playbook. Israel wants Iran to be weak and fragmented. They want another Syria in the region, not another Turkey. The Americans want another Venezuela but are worried that they will get another Libya.”
A military analyst commented that “Allies have to at least agree on a common strategic goal, a shared vision as to what the outcome is. The Americans can’t articulate an outcome – regime change, no nukes, no ballistic missiles, imminent threat, ‘Israel started it’ – and so how can anyone else join them when there is no clear objective.”
They continued, “Because there is no clear American vision, it’s very possible that even if the US declares an end to this conflict, the Israelis may continue.”
The Israeli analyst noted, “There is no opposition in Israel to ending the biggest threat that we face – Iran, Iran’s missile program and its proxies. Bibi [Netanyahu] has done it. They may not admit it, but the Arabs will be pleased too that their old enemy has been severely degraded.”
A Washington-based analyst told Field, “The Americans want this over quickly. Trump wants to be able to show off quick achievements. In no particular order: he wants to show that he has stopped a crazy regime from having nuclear weapons, he wants the US to be feared, he wants to show that’s he’s a loyal supporter of Israel and that he has another claim for a Nobel prize – not a second hand one, and that there have been no, or very few, American casualties.”
An Iran watcher gave us a different perspective. “The Iranians are going to want to drag this out for as long as possible. They obviously cannot inflict any real damage on the Americans – or at least the military. What they can do is hit US targets across the region – from the military bases to the embassies and consulates. And probably more importantly they can hit the US’s friends. Hitting civilian targets in the Gulf, a hotel in Dubai, an oil refinery in Saudi, inflicts a price that they hope will discourage those countries from allowing the Americans to do this again. If the Americans listen to anyone, it’s them.”
A think tanker told us, “It has to end, at some point, whether quickly or after weeks of bombardment. So who’s at the table? The Americans and the Iranians and who else? If the Iranians can involve the Gulfies sufficiently in this war then they are more likely to get seats at the table and potentially act as a moderating influence on the US. After all, the Gulfies still have to live alongside the Iranians for the rest of time.”
The military analyst said, “This will end when the Americans and Israelis run out of missiles or targets. Or when the Iranians close the Straits of Hormuz.”
The think tanker added, “It’s a race to see who can inflict the most pain on the other the most quickly. Israel was preparing to intercept up to 150 missiles a day and has been targeted by about 30 a day, 20% of the threat that they thought that they faced. They can survive and thrive. The Iranians may not survive the dozens of waves of attacks going on now, unless they can do something dramatic and asymmetric – like close the Straits of Hormuz and drive the oil price through the roof to pressure the American public to end it.”
Raising another variable, the Iran watcher told Field, “There is no race to appoint another Supreme Leader. That’s not going to be a factor in how this ends. It’s a death sentence for whoever takes over. In any event, there’s so much misinformation coming out of Iran at the moment it’s hard to know who’s really still alive amongst the candidates to take over the country. But it will be someone from the Islamic Republic, right now the regime is no weaker than before this latest round of attacks began. Don’t confuse between ‘stuff’ and people. You can break their stuff but the regime is people and there are plenty of them.”