The conditions that the diplomat referred to were cited by a number of our interlocutors.
The US election creates a window of opportunity. “Neither candidate wants to be “soft” on Iran and the Axis of Resistance or show anything less than unwavering support for Israel. Except perhaps in Michigan, where the substantial Arab vote may not turn out for the Democrats”, an Israeli journalist told us.
Israel believes it still has legitimacy to pursue its security at any costs following the Hamas atrocity on 7 October. “The majority of the Israeli population believes that condemnation of their campaign in Gaza is simply evidence of antisemitism, “ according to a Western journalist based in Jerusalem, “they are living in a bubble of sirens and missiles and fear that Iran really may wipe Israel off the map.”
“International law has become irrelevant,” we were told by a senior UN diplomat. Open sources report the banning of the UN Secretary-General was banned from entering Israel. The UN Special Coordinator’s Humanitarian Coordinator was declared persona non grata. The UN staff in Gaza have suffered the highest losses of any UN mission in the world [over 200 killed]. Quite soon, the UN is likely to be prevented by Israel from operating in even a humanitarian capacity in Gaza.
“The Geneva Conventions have effectively been suspended. The justification of the pursuit of terrorists and civilians being termed “human shields” has enabled the bombing of residential units, mosques and churches, medical facilities, schools, markets and even areas designated as ‘Safe Zones’”. Everyone and everything can now be a target. Israel can even kill their own people [the 7 October hostages] under the unofficial ‘Hannibal doctrine’, which states that it’s better to kill an Israeli than allow them to be taken hostage,” according to a serving Western military officer.
The Israeli government is prepared to commit to war with no exit strategy. “The Israeli government has Bibi [Netanyahu], Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. A criminal who wants to launder his reputation and two armchair generals with no military experience who are prepared to sacrifice secular Israelis while ensuring that the religious never have to fight”, we were told by an Israeli activist. “Arab life is not their concern at all.”
There are different scenarios for what happens next.
In Lebanon the Israeli government may want to create a buffer zone, from the northern Israeli border to the Litani river. This is the zone where the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is stationed. “UNIFIL has evidently failed in its job of ensuring that the south is demilitarised, or there wouldn’t be missiles targeting Haifa and units of Hizbullah fighters engaging with the Israeli military,” according to an Israeli source, “so we need to do it ourselves.”
In this scenario, the Israeli military systematically targets Hizbullah assets across Lebanon, even in areas controlled by other confessional communities. “The targeting of the Hizbullah assets in the [Christian] village of Aitou was of course deliberate. They [Hizbullah] must have no place to hide. The Lebanese non-Shia, non Hizbullah must be turned against them” according to the source.
A Lebanese political interlocutor told us that “Israel is pushing us towards another civil war. They are pulling at the threads of our sectarian identity to turn us against each other. Secular Shia from Beirut who hate Hizbullah can’t move to safer towns or villages as they aren’t accepted, people don’t want the risk of being an Israeli target. Everyone can buy a gun in this country, if they don’t already have one.”
“Israel knows that if they leave, people will return – maybe Hizbullah, maybe the next Hizbullah, who, let’s not forget kicked Israel out of Lebanon when they controlled the South [the area up to the Litani river] up until 2000. And they will bring bombs and guns and Israel will have to keep coming back. So, how do they retain control? They scorch the earth and displace millions of people and make the world’s largest DMZ in someone else’s country,” a retired Lebanese general told us.
An Israel analyst presented the ‘messianic scenario’. “Israel will encourage armed settlers to live in southern Lebanon, exactly as they do in the West Bank. It’s messianic and maybe far-fetched today, but that’s ultimately the dream of the right wingers in the Israeli government right now. It fits with their vision of an expanded Israel. Avigdor Lieberman [former Israeli Foreign Minister] has talked about the need to take more of southern Syria [beyond the occupied Golan Heights]. They are already talking about re-settling Gaza. They have confiscated more Palestinian land in the West Bank since 7 October than in the previous 10 years. Settling South Lebanon makes political and security sense for them.”
There are naturally divergent views on what will happen next between Israel and Iran. Iran has some deterrent capacity to prevent, or perhaps mitigate the extent of any Israeli campaign against the regime.
“The Americans do not want the oil price to spike right now. And they have told the Israelis that Iran’s oil facilities cannot be targeted” according to another Western diplomatic source. “Iran in turn has let it be known through the usual channels that if they are hit, they will strike back anywhere – meaning that they may bomb oil facilities in the Gulf, which would also create a spike.”
An Israeli commentator told Field that “Israel can attack Iran’s nuclear program and delay their progress by three, five, ten years, but that’s all it is, a delay. Does Israel then have to make peace with the Palestinians because they no longer face an existential threat? That’s what Netanyahu has been telling the public for years. It’s a tactical gain and a strategic loss. Not smart.”
A Western security source told us that the Israelis had messaged that they may target Iranian military facilities, and likely the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps [which manages Hizbullah, the Houthis and other proxy forces]. In this scenario, the intention would be to turn the Iranian public against Khamenei and the regime, fomenting instability and potentially deeper internal conflict.
Finally, the Israel analyst noted the media ban on reporting on the 180 missiles that Iran fired at Israel on 1 October. “It was clear from social reporting that some missiles did hit Tel Aviv. There was a satellite image showing the precise strike on an aircraft hangar at the Israeli army’s Nevatim air base. Iran’s message was clear, you may shoot down most of the missiles, but if only a few get through with the right warheads we can hurt you, so think about that before you hurt us.”
